tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528146969570948529.post8573885914502527122..comments2024-03-21T22:51:03.977-04:00Comments on Models & Agents: Messing around with creditChevellehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10769905202655777736noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528146969570948529.post-41067756202733164732009-01-30T02:45:00.000-05:002009-01-30T02:45:00.000-05:00The Fed is insolvent if you look at their balance ...The Fed is insolvent if you look at their balance sheet.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528146969570948529.post-80153292115149354732009-01-30T00:00:00.000-05:002009-01-30T00:00:00.000-05:00Moopheus, I agree. In addition to all the reasons...Moopheus, I agree. In addition to all the reasons you cited for not being willing to move into the mortgage buying game now, I'd add property taxes and inflated maintenance costs to the mix. And if you're counting on Social Security should you become disabled or old...buying soon could be particularly dangerous. Wait it out. News of the bitter aftereffects of these addictive bailouts and stimulus bills cannot be suppressed much longer. We will be barfing for a long time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528146969570948529.post-84624307497277334912009-01-29T13:01:00.000-05:002009-01-29T13:01:00.000-05:00Thanks for this. Whenever I hear someone say "it's...Thanks for this. Whenever I hear someone say "it's a great time to buy a house" because "rates are low" I start frothing irrationally. I do believe that the Fed and the other agencies are still trying to play kick the can down the road. When the Fed says "support the housing market" they must surely mean "keep prices from falling further." Since they are paying for the MBS by "creating new reserves," I can only conclude that they are hoping to support nominal prices by eroding real value with inflation, and hoping that incomes keep up. But if wages don't rise, then house prices must surely continue to decline. Which just passes on the problem to the next round of buyers. I, for one, would like to buy a house, but this is a game I do not want to play. Will lower rates now help me save for a downpayment, or decrease the LTV ratio of my loan? No, the will not? Will I be helped later if I should need to sell and rates have gone up? No, I will not. If I buy now, then I must either pay out an uncomfortably large portion of my savings as a downpayment, or take an overleveraged loan, leaving me in a riskier position. I am still better off waiting to see if prices fall further. Am I wrong?<BR/><BR/>The program acronyms I am waiting for are BARF and SPLIFF, since that is what I feel like doing, and what they must be smoking.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528146969570948529.post-12836820611677081192009-01-29T11:08:00.000-05:002009-01-29T11:08:00.000-05:00Nice work.My personal favorite Bernanke debacle wa...Nice work.<BR/><BR/>My personal favorite Bernanke debacle was the original TSLF being announced on Tuesday, March 11th. Considering that the capital markets had been worried for days that Bear Stearns was having financing issues, the Fed's announcement of the TSLF added to market fears - why else would the Fed do something so innovative and large if some important financial institution wasn't in distress? The next morning, I sent a friend an email calling the TSLF "the Bear Stearns bailout act of 2008". <BR/><BR/>What I was a bit slow to catch on to (I am a dull-witted equity guy, after all) was that the TSLF wasn't to be started up until TWO WEEKS later on March 27th! Kind of like announcing to the world that you have a guy bleeding to death in the street but not giving them a transfusion until two weeks later. So the Bear didn't even make it through the weekend of March 15-16 before going out of business. Nice job, Ben.<BR/><BR/>It's getting increasingly clear to me that the crisis can't end until home prices adjust downward to the old long-term average income-to-home price ratio . . . . . . because the fact is no one can cause home prices to remain above their rational, market-clearing level and our leaders shouldn't even bother to try because that'll just drag out the pain. And yes, the mortgage debt and derivatives and CDOs will continue to decline in price until the underlying home values stabilize and the losses will pile up - maybe not quite in Roubini's $3 trillion+ magnitude, but maybe they will - the guy's been right more than anybody else and home prices still have to fall another 20% minimum.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528146969570948529.post-57932041779817671392009-01-29T05:07:00.000-05:002009-01-29T05:07:00.000-05:00I need scotch when Ben or Bair start off ... SURE ...I need scotch when Ben or Bair start off ... SURE that they will make matters worse and SURE THAT the tax-payers will be POORER once the ideas gets going ..<BR/><BR/>How did they get there to wreak such havoc .. and when are they going to be set free to wherever they want to go without endangering the tax-payersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com